[ISN] Where will the NSA be in 5 to 10 years?

http://selil.com/archives/4553 By Sam Liles Selil.com October 17, 2013 I’ve been thinking about how the structure of the intelligence community and specifically technical collection activities are understood. The departure of General Alexander and the current budget fights are policy fulcrum points that can be used for change. I have to caveat my comments that follow. I don’t have a lot of experience at NSA, I have very little experience with CyberCom, and NSA/DHS paid for my PhD. Whether you think me shill for not being blood thirsty calling for the end of the NSA, or not experienced enough for not having served at the NSA, the comment and the opinions are free. So, take everything I say with a grain of salt and let the logic or lack of it determine the credibility. I have a few things here that I think people will take interest in. I talked about some of this previously here. I think the following are the themes we will see in the next five to ten years. 1) NSA will be half the size it is today. 2) NSA becomes a contractor free agency. 3) Elements of NSA working toward national infrastructure security are split off. 4) NSA and CyberCom split 5) NSA has to invest in privacy preserving security as penance 6) Individuals may find themselves under congressional investigation I figure the largest 5 year and out result will be a much smaller NSA. NSA will likely be a half to third the size it is today. The primary losses will be in contractor staff, hiring freezes, and about a 10 percent reduction in force. Nobody I know is talking about this currently. The reduction in force will be part of larger federal government reduction in force and will hit the NSA lighter than other government entities. There will be great gnashing of teeth, but considering how hard the Army and Air Force have already been hit there will be little sympathy internally or externally for the agency or intelligence community in general. […]